Put your pencils down, and move your ballots to the entrance. The nominations voting interval for the 96th Academy Awards is now closed. The most recent influences on the race got here from the Critics Alternative Awards and the Golden Globes, the place Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” topped each teams. Nonetheless, Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Issues” has proven appreciable energy, and movies equivalent to Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” and Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall” are choosing up momentum.

Selection spoke with dozens of voters from all the Academy’s branches, asking what movies and performances have been resonating with members and their acquaintances.

Listed here are six issues I’ve discovered from discussions with AMPAS members.

AMPAS might see a record-breaking exhibiting in finest image for feminine administrators.

The Producers Guild of America nominated three films directed by ladies: “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie” and “Previous Lives.” If the three translate to the Oscars‘ Finest Image lineup, it is going to be probably the most movies directed by ladies to be nominated. Solely 19 films helmed by feminine filmmakers have been acknowledged by the Academy. Of these, solely 4 Oscar lineups have included two female-directed films — 2009 (“An Training” and winner “The Harm Locker”), 2010 (“The Children Are All Proper” and “Winter’s Bone”), 2020 (“Promising Younger Girl” and winner “Nomadland”) and 2021 (“The Energy of the Canine” and winner “CODA”). Issues look promising, however you possibly can by no means depend out a shock omission.

It’s a 50/50 shot for Greta Gerwig in finest director for “Barbie.”

The billion-dollar query surrounding Warner Bros’ “Barbie” is will its director, Greta Gerwig, obtain sufficient votes from the Administrators Department? Given the style, and the impression that as one AMPAS member informed Selection, “on the finish of the day, it’s only a Barbie film,” might that stop the previous nominee for “Woman Hen” (2017) from making the reduce?

You possibly can level to style bias or just that different visions are producing passionate responses (i.e., Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Curiosity”). The primary vital clue will come from BAFTA nominations Thursday. The highest two feminine filmmakers are routinely positioned among the many six nominees based mostly on the voting technique. If solely two ladies helmers are among the many nominees, and one is just not Gerwig, it could possibly be an indication of hassle (at the least with worldwide voters). If that lineup contains three ladies — Gerwig, Celine Music (“Previous Lives”) and Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”) — the hypothesis will stay intact.

If Gerwig misses out on a directing nomination, we might nonetheless see one other “Argo-type” state of affairs that propels the comedy into critical profitable competition.

“Saltburn” is surging.

Emerald Fennell’s horny thriller has been the speak of the city and the web, producing polarizing responses from varied branches. Amazon MGM’s marketing campaign has additionally garnered consideration, with FYC advertisements that includes the infamous bathtub drain seen on Sundown Blvd in Los Angeles (a superb transfer).

The movie is seemingly on the bubble in a number of classes — supporting actress (Rosamund Pike), unique screenplay, manufacturing design, cinematography and unique rating — with voters mentioning the drama in a number of conversations with Selection. Be careful for a better-than-expected exhibiting.

“The Shade Purple” wants the Performing department to maintain its hopes alive.

It’s an artwork type to drum up an awards marketing campaign for the ultimate releases of a season. “The Shade Purple” is critically lauded however has struggled to get important recognition from crucial guilds equivalent to artwork administrators, costume designers, and hair and make-up. With solely a SAG nom for solid ensemble below its belt, the musical remake of the 1985 traditional is counting on Actors Department help with members coming by way of for doable nominees equivalent to Danielle Brooks. Traditionally, a musical efficiency has by no means been the only real nomination for its film. So, both predict “Shade Purple” for different classes or (sadly) challenge a shutout of the image.

“Origin” continues to be going for it in finest image, however that could possibly be its solely nomination.

Trade heavy hitters equivalent to Cher and Angelina Jolie have voiced help for Ava DuVernay’s harrowing drama, main social media chatter to take a position {that a} doable “To Leslie-esque” shock could possibly be brewing for its star Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (coincidentally, Andrea Riseborough attended a screening). Nonetheless, based mostly on discussions with voters, there’s a sense the film might develop into the primary film since “The Ox-Bow Incident” (1943) to be nominated solely for finest image. With 10 slots, I presume something is feasible.

It’s not clear which, or if any, “Poor Issues” supporting actor will get nominated.

Two supporting actor nominees have hailed from the identical film for 4 years working. This yr, “Poor Issues” co-stars Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo have been inconsistent in being acknowledged collectively on the televised awards ceremonies. Solely Golden Globes, which nominates six, had each males of their lineup. With SAG going for Dafoe and snubbing Ruffalo, with BAFTA leaving Dafoe off its preliminary longlist however together with Ruffalo, it’s a coin flip if each, one, and even any of them make the reduce. With “American Fiction” and “The Holdovers” gaining momentum (which helps bids for Sterling Okay. Brown and Dominic Sessa), your guess is pretty much as good as mine.

“Maestro” might mimic “Mank.”

In 2020, one other monochromatic interval drama, “Mank” from director David Fincher, led the nomination tally with 10, however missed two crucial classes — unique screenplay and enhancing. Concerning Bradley Cooper’s half black-and-white portrait of composer Leonard Bernstein, the biopic seems to be stable for spots in finest image, lead appearing, and a handful of techs. Nonetheless, unique screenplays with different artisan races are on the bubble, leaving the Netflix characteristic in a variety of between 5 and 10 nominations (which is sort of massive for a Finest Image hopeful). Typically, the streamer has come out on the upper finish of the nom tally.

“Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse” nonetheless has a shot.

I used to be pleasantly shocked how a lot the Sony Footage’ animated characteristic hit got here up in discussions with voters. Maybe not sufficient to make a distinction, however robust within the writers, visible results and music branches. Might “Spider-Verse” develop into the primary non-Disney animated finest image nominee? That’s too near name, however extra importantly, which movie would it not substitute?